randy_byers: (2009-05-10)
[personal profile] randy_byers
I've stopped writing much about national politics, because I'm so sick and fucking tired of everybody's political opinions, including my own, that I could puke. And this tired NYTimes article by Sheryl Gay Stolberg, "Obama Pushes Agenda, Despite Political Risks," is a perfect example of what is so sick about the political press in this country. She spends the whole article talking about the political risks of Obama's policy agenda in the past two years without once trying to analyze whether in fact the policies are good for the country. She compares Obama's push for health care reform in the face of bad polling to Bush's defense of the occupation of Iraq in the face of bad polling: "It is an argument that sounds eerily similar to the one Mr. Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, made to justify an unpopular war in Iraq as he watched his own poll numbers sink lower. Mr. Bush and his aides often felt they could not catch a break; when the economy was humming along — or at least seemed to be humming along — the Bush White House never got credit for it, because the public was so upset about the war."

You know what, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, fuck you. Health care reform is going to make our country stronger. The Iraq debacle made our country weaker. One thing was worth the political risk, and the other wasn't. It's really not that difficult to see, is it? Yet all you want to look at is whether it's damaging to Obama's political career or not. Fuck you. Think about your fucking country, you fucking dimwit. Obama could go down in flames tomorrow, and we would still be better off because of what the White House and Congress have done in the past eighteen months. How eerily similar is that to Dubya, you fucking idiot?

Date: 2010-07-20 03:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strangedave.livejournal.com
Much. While not everyone likes Gillard politically, she is personally popular. Rudd was a workaholic and control freak, prone to micro-management and a bunker mentality. Gillard talks to the rest of the party a lot more, and is also far more conciliatory and open to negotiation generally (Rudd is notorious for flying off the handle).

Gillard is also a very good public performer, very sharp and spontaneous. I think she is going to wipe the floor with Abbott when it comes to the election debates. The election will have a few bad spots, but I think the ALP will win without too much drama.

Mind you, I think Rudd would have won the election. But Gillards chances are very solid. The big question is what will our Senate look like - I'm expecting a boost for the Greens, who I'm hoping will take the Senate balance of power.

Date: 2010-07-20 05:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] randy-byers.livejournal.com
Thanks, Dave. So would a boost of Green power in the Senate make it easier to pass a climate bill? Looks like cap and trade is dead here for now, but there's still stuff that could be done to expand the use of renewable energy, increase energy efficiency, etc.

Date: 2010-07-20 07:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] strangedave.livejournal.com
The answer is, in general, yes, but it is a bit more complicated, and has a messy history. The Greens refused to support the previous bill, because they thought it was too weak, and are likely to press for a reasonably serious commitment that won't be popular with the industry lobby etc. So, it depends on what strategy the government takes -- if they make a fairly strong commitment, the Greens will probably come on board, but the Greens might not be helpful if they try something minimalist.

Rudd was very against negotiation with the Greens - and to be very pragmatic, he had a point on this issue at least. ALP+Greens was not enough, he needed Independents as well to outvote the Libs, which was almost certain not to happen, so a bipartisan effort with the Libs (or at least significant vote leakage) was really the only chance to pass it. And a proposal that the Libs would vote for would almost be certain to be too weak for the Greens.

The combination of Gillard and the Greens having Senate balance of power is probably the best bet - but it very much depends on what strategy the two parties take on the issue.

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